The vital need of contemporary enterprises to attain and sustain the desired level of customer service with the minimum possible stock, recently led LA to expand its supply chain management solutions portfolio in the areas of demand forecasting and replenishment planning covering national / regional warehouses and retail outlets (Supply Chain Planning). This was realized by extending Logistics Vision's functionality with Syncron, the flagship software product suite of Syncron International, a European company with international presence and hundreds of important customers worldwide.

DEMAND FORECASTING

Reliable forecasting is the driving force behind optimising inventory levels. Detecting and responding to changes in demand means understanding a company's typical demand pattern, evaluation of historical data and utilization of known future requirements. The Syncron Demand Forecasting [DF] module exploits this information to provide accurate forecasts of future demand. In turn, more accurate forecasts negate the need for large 'safety-net' stocks of goods. DF has shown its capacity in a series of implementations in big, often-international businesses and supply chains. Among its main functions are the following: Calculates future demand from historical data. The historical demand pattern determines the exact forecasting technique used according to nine different demand patterns. Periodically checks for any change in the pattern and automatically resets it if necessary. Forecasting accuracy is maintained by the system. Monitoring changes in trends. Identifies exceptionally high or low fluctuation in demand. Allows manual adjustments which are automatically fed into the replenishment or order scheduling process. The module is self checking on its forecast accuracy while at the same time allows manual adjustments. Results can be further enhanced using additional tools that complement its core functionality.

SEASONAL ANALYSIS

The calculation of seasonal profiles is based on historical facts. It computes profiles for groups of products in order to eliminate the random noise that is inherent at product level and takes into account events that move from year to year such as easter holidays. This method ensures smoother profiles and more accurate forecasts. By overlaying non-repeating events on demand history and subsequent forecasts, you can predict changes in customer volume such as planned maintenance requiring spare parts or an increase in the number of retail outlets.

TAKING PROMOTION INTO ACCOUNT

Analysis from past promotional campaigns helps making informed predictions on the impact of future events. Multi-level forecasts are supported enabling the user to perform forecasts at the level that provides the best accuracy.

REPLENISHMENT PLANNING

The main objective of any supply chain planning tool is to minimise conflict between the need to establish safe stock levels at all critical points in the chain and at the same time to avoid excess stock piling. Customer satisfaction can then be combined with great savings in capital tied up in inventory. Planning with the Replenishment Planning module is based on: Safety stocks driven by necessary service levels at all locations. Demand forecasting. Provide supply and demand information throughout the pipeline along with the data needed to optimise stock allocation. The module will recommend safety stocks, based on target service levels, lead times and replenishment frequency. Its flexibility allows the fine tunning of different replenishment or service level policies for different groups and item types. Maximize customer satisfaction by reducing stock outs. Optimises capital tied up in inventory. Improve supplier relationship. Minimise materials costs by buying the most economic quantities. Longer term planning. It schedules orders according to the constraints of the business environment and calculates a time phased replenishment schedule over the planning horizon. Ensuring demand-pull replenishment. Provide accurate order planning. Optimise stock allocation. Provides management by exception through the exceptional reports.